Bertha, the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, jumped from a Category One storm to Category Three on July 7, then relieved storm watchers by dropping to Category Two within 24 hours. Bertha's brief threat, however, reminds us that the summer of '08 could be a rough season.

According to an outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the Atlantic Basin should expect an above-normal hurricane season. There is a 25 percent chance that the region will experience a near-normal incidence of named storms, but above-normal is more likely, at an estimated probability of 65 percent.

Dr. Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, said, "We’re expecting quite a bit of activity this year.”

An average hurricane season has 11 named storms, 6 of which reach hurricane status, 2 of which become major hurricanes. This season, there is a 60-70 percent chance that the Atlantic Basin will have 12 to 16 named storms, including 6-9 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes, according to the Climate Prediction Center outlook.

Predictions about this year’s hurricane season were based primarily on two factors, according to Bell: the continuing active hurricane era, which started in 1995, and the possible influence of La Niña in the peak months of hurricane season.

Hurricane forecasting remains an uncertain science, with experts predicting the likely range of activity through comparisons with past seasons that exhibit similar climate patterns. So far, the systems are too complex and variable to be modeled with perfect reliability.

As Bell puts it, “There are a couple of dominant climate patterns that very strongly control the hurricane season. There is uncertainty because no one of those factors accounts for all activity.”

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated hurricane outlook in August. Information about Hurricane Bertha can be found on the National Hurricane Center’s Web site, noaa.gov.